Welcome to the UK Covid-19 Forecasting Challenge evaluation board!

Below you find a visualisation of all forecasts made for the UK Covid-19 Crowd Forecasting Challenge as well as an evaluation of the forecasts. The latter part will be added as soon as data comes in.

If you want to learn more about the crowd forecasting challenge and how to participate, visit crowdforecastr.org


Visualisation of the combined crowd forecast

The plot shows the combined forecast of all participants. Forecasts are combined by taking the average of all predictions. The date of the tab marks the date on which a forecast was made.

2021-05-31

Cases

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Deaths

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Deaths

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2021-05-24

Cases

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Deaths

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Deaths

>>>>>>> e2295092dbe66ac8f48115d5d95bd4dd5a8d8269


Forecast visualisation

Visualisation of individual forecasts. The date of the tab marks the date on which a forecast was made.

2021-05-31

Cases

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Deaths

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Deaths

>>>>>>> e2295092dbe66ac8f48115d5d95bd4dd5a8d8269

2021-05-24

Cases

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Deaths

=======

Deaths

>>>>>>> e2295092dbe66ac8f48115d5d95bd4dd5a8d8269


Leaderboard

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Detailed forecast scores

Scores separated by target and forecast horizon.

Cases

1 week ahead horizon

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2 weeks ahead horizon

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2 weeks ahead horizon

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3 weeks ahead horizon

NULL

4 weeks ahead horizon

NULL

Deaths

1 week ahead horizon

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2 weeks ahead horizon

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2 weeks ahead horizon

>>>>>>> e2295092dbe66ac8f48115d5d95bd4dd5a8d8269

3 weeks ahead horizon

NULL

4 weeks ahead horizon

NULL


Evaluation metrics


Evolution of scores over time

Visualisation of the weighted interval score over time. In addition, the components of the interval score, sharpness (how narrow are forecasts - smaller is better), and penalties for underprediction and overprediction are shown. Scores are again separated by forecast horizon

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1 week ahead horizon

Weighted interval score

Overprediction

Underprediction

Sharpness

2 weeks ahead horizon

Weighted interval score

Overprediction

Underprediction

Sharpness

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1 week ahead horizon

Weighted interval score

Overprediction

Underprediction

Sharpness

2 weeks ahead horizon

Weighted interval score

Overprediction

Underprediction

Sharpness

>>>>>>> e2295092dbe66ac8f48115d5d95bd4dd5a8d8269

3 weeks ahead horizon

4 weeks ahead horizon

If you want to learn more about a model, you can go the the ‘data-processed’-folder of the European Forecast Hub github repository, select a model and access the metadata file with further information provided by the model authors.